Demographic Transition Model and Global Food Production
The demographic transition is a model that describes population over time. It was developed by the American demographer Warren Thompson. The demographic transition model depicts the changes in the demographic profile of a state/county/locality by observing the ration of birth and deaths per 1000 people in that place with respect to changing of time. This correlation is plotted and then linked with the total population growth and with the respect to time. In developed countries, this transition had begun in the eighteenth century and it continues till this day. Eighty-two years ago, after the original development of the four stages of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) by the late demographer Warren Thompson (1887-1973) it is stated that the cracks are starting to show on the model that for many of years revolutionized how we the people think about the geography of our global population. CITATION Edw11 l 1033 (Morgan, 2011)
There are four of the demographic transition model and there is the pre-transition stage, and the early transition stage, and there is the late transition stage and the last stage is the post-transition. The first stage is the pre-transition in this stage it is characterized by the high birth rates, and by high fluctuating death rates. While reading it was stated that all human populations are to believe to have had this balance until the late 18th century, when this balance has ended in Western Europe. In stage one of the demographic transition model the birth rates and the death rates was stable as I could see from the demographic graph of the births/deaths. The factors that contribute to the changes to the CBR and CDR was that because the birth rates and the death rates were approximately in balance and the population growth is typically very slow in stage one. CITATION www15 l 1033 (www.quora.com, 2015)The second stage is the early transition in this stage the death rates begin to fall and as the birth rates remain high and the population starts to grow rapidly. The death rates drop rapidly due to improvements in the food supply and sanitation in which increase life spans and reduce disease. he improvements specific the food supply does typically include selective breeding and crop rotation and farming techniques also. Other improvements generally include access to the technology and basic healthcare and to education. Well in the second stage the birth rates remain high because of the population growth. And, the death rates start to decline because of the food supply begin to increase. CITATION www15 l 1033 (www.quora.com, 2015)
The birth rates start to decline in stage three which is the late transition stage. Also, the rate of the population growth decelerates. CITATION Fra96 l 1033 (Notestein, 1996) In stage three birth rates fell due to access to contraception increases in wages and in urbanization as a reduction in subsistence agriculture and an increase in the status and in the education of women and a reduction in the value of the children’s work. It is stated that the birth rate decline in developed countries started in the late 19th century in northern Europe. CITATION www15 l 1033 (www.quora.com, 2015)The birth rate was declining was caused by transition values and not just because of the availability of contraceptives.
The fourth and final stage of the demographic transition model was the post-transition. While reading the text it stated that the post-transition societies where characterized by the low death rates. Also, that population growth is negligible or even enters a decline. CITATION www15 l 1033 (www.quora.com, 2015) CITATION Fra96 l 1033 (Notestein, 1996) During stage four there are both low birth rates and low death rates. Upon reading the text it was stated that birth rates may drop to well below of the replacement level as it happened in countries like Germany, Italy, and Japan that has led to a shrinking population. Also, death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to the high increases in the lifestyle. Bread for the world helps a developing country reach their food security goals. CITATION www70 l 1033 (www.google.com, 1970)